This blog post ventures into the future of sourdough, a journey that began with my first encounter with a simple blob of fermented flour and water. From my first flat and gummy loaf to the hours I now spend imagining new sourdough creations, my baking ventures are some of my most treasured moments.
Beyond sheer enjoyment, as someone with a gluten intolerance, I’ve found a friend in sourdough products. It’s versatile nature and low gluten index made me wonder – what does the future of sourdough hold in a world where non-coeliac gluten intolerances are on the rise?
Bell's Futurist Model
Wendell Bell, a pioneer in the field of futures studies, introduced a comprehensive model for contemplating the future, using three distinct categories: possible, probable, and preferable futures. This model can guide individuals and organisations in navigating the complexities of future-oriented thinking.
Possible Futures represent the broad spectrum of what could conceivably happen, without the constraints of current likelihoods or realities. This category encourages expansive thinking, exploring a wide range of outcomes grounded in the laws of nature and human potential. It’s an invitation to envision the full array of future scenarios, driven by advances in technology, shifts in societal norms, environmental changes, and ethical considerations.
Probable Futures concentrate on outcomes that are likely to occur, based on existing trends, data, and patterns. This approach utilises statistical evidence and current understandings to forecast what is most likely to unfold. It provides a basis for preparing and adapting strategies in anticipation of foreseeable changes.
Preferable Futures focus on the desired outcomes of individuals or societies. This category is inherently subjective, embedding value judgments, ethical principles, and aspirations. It goes beyond mere wishful thinking to encompass actionable strategies aimed at achieving these envisioned futures.
In this post, I apply Bell’s model to explore the future of sourdough, imagining the possibilities that sourdough presents in the context of modern culinary practices, health trends, and cultural shifts. By dissecting the possible, probable, and preferable futures of sourdough, we can engage in an examination of its evolution, from its roots as an ancient bread-making technique to its potential role in addressing contemporary challenges like gluten intolerance and the rising interest in sustainable, artisanal food practices. Through this lens, I aim to present my vision of the future of sourdough in the year 2030.
Possible Futures of Sourdough
When considering the future of sourdough, a few scenarios emerge. Firstly, sourdough could become the new standard in bread and grain-product making, dethroning traditional yeast bread with its nutritional benefits and unique flavor profiles. Technological innovations might emerge to address sourdough’s notoriously time-consuming and delicate nature. Imagine cybernetic systems optimising fermentation conditions or AI-driven dough mixers ensuring the perfect hydration every time. Beyond the kitchen, this sourdough revolution could influence societal norms and cultural practices, extending into areas like education with sourdough baking classes becoming part of school curriculum, housing designs that include dedicated baking spaces, and even fashion with wearable tech that monitors fermentation stages. The sourdough movement has the potential to reshape our lifestyle, grocery shopping habits, and even medical advice on diet and nutrition.
Probable Futures of Sourdough
The number of consumers with celiac disease and gluten intolerance is rising in Australia. As per the National Health and Medical Research Council, about 11% of Australian adults consume a gluten-free diet, and less than 0.5% have celiac disease. Celiac disease affects around 1 in 70 people in Australia. It is incurable, and people need to follow a gluten-free diet all their lives, thus creating opportunities for companies to produce gluten-free foods and beverages.
Mordor Intelligence Source
A probable future of sourdough, inspired by the rising gluten intolerance levels discussed in Naturally Good, hints at sourdough starters being integrated into a wider array of commercially available foods. With sourdough’s lower gluten index due to the absence of commercial yeast, it stands as a beacon for alternative living. By 2030, we might see sourdough variants of popular foods, offering a low-gluten alternative to those sensitive to gluten but not suffering from coeliac disease. This transition could help alleviate the dietary restrictions faced by many, making sourdough a staple in gluten-sensitive diets.
Preferable Futures of Sourdough
By 2030, I envision sourdough not just as a baking ingredient but as a cornerstone of global dietary practices. Its application will stretch far beyond bread, transforming the preparation of grain-based foods like cakes, brownies, pizzas, and bagels. This expansion will cater to the growing demographic with gluten sensitivity, enhancing food’s nutritional value and taste complexity. The modernisation of sourdough aligns with a shift towards minimally processed foods, embodying the marriage of innovation and tradition. New technologies, such as advanced fermentation chambers and AI-driven baking assistants, could revolutionise sourdough production, making it accessible and labor-efficient. The integration of food preparation into home design, with spaces dedicated to sourdough baking, could become a norm, blending ancient practices with modern innovation.
Imagining the Future of Sourdough Using Generative AI
The future of sourdough is not just conceptual but visual. To demonstrate this, I utilised DALL-E via ChatGPT and Midjourney to produce a series of images to represent the possible, probable and preferable futures of sourdough discussed above.
In one set of images, we see a modern grocery store aisle illuminated with an array of sourdough products, each label proudly declaring its sourdough origin. This diversity in sourdough-based foods reflects its integration into daily diets.
Another set of images brings to life the technology behind this sourdough revolution: sleek fermentation stations, digital controls, and robotic arms folding dough signify a future where technology eases the labor of sourdough production, making it a fixture in healthy, sustainable living.
Inspired by these images, I decided to create an advertisement for a possible technological innovation in the sourdough space. Assisted by ChatGPT and Veed.io, I generated a script for a bench-top sourdough making assistant. The AutoFermTech employs cybernetic systems and AI technology to make sourdough baking simple. In 2030, it would be in its early development. I imagine in the more distant future, this technology would incorporate other ‘smart’ systems like IoT and perhaps one day, artificial general intelligence.
The advertisement is below, using stock video sourced from the Envato library.
Conclusion
As we look towards 2030, the horizon for sourdough is not just bright; it’s transformative. From its humble beginnings to becoming a beacon of healthful and sustainable eating, sourdough is set to redefine our relationship with food. Through a blend of ancient practices and modern innovations, it invites us to reimagine not only what we eat but how we connect with the very essence of nourishment. In this future, sourdough is more than bread—it’s a symbol of a culture that values health, community, and the environment, making it a cherished part of our daily lives.
References
Bell, Wendell. (2002). Making people responsible: The possible, the probable, and the preferable. In James A. Dator (Ed.), Advancing futures: Futures studies in higher education (pp.33-52). Westport, CT: Praeger
Bell, Wendell (2004). Foundations of futures studies: human science for a new era: values, objectivity, and the good society (Vol. 2). 1st Edition. Routledge. New York.
Acknowledgement of Generative AI Use
This blog post was produced with the assistance of ChatGPT. I utilised Midjourney to produce images for the post and utilised Voicebooking to create the voice over for my video.